Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 2.207216 2.644204 3.134372 3.723336 4.410118 5.183922 6.120000
2025-12-21 1.571263 2.122196 2.807225 3.715034 4.879071 6.313400 8.205347
2025-12-28 1.270118 1.892022 2.732309 3.935662 5.596728 7.788018 10.872225
2026-01-04 1.033493 1.676993 2.611170 4.040179 6.138320 9.066462 13.411484
2026-01-11 0.879702 1.539147 2.558362 4.208541 6.761857 10.497610 16.289814
2026-01-18 0.728961 1.369739 2.420092 4.212647 7.122842 11.567133 18.735221
2026-01-25 0.586208 1.181145 2.213602 4.066890 7.216035 12.222694 20.600065
2026-02-01 0.474068 1.021674 2.025235 3.914745 7.265340 12.794701 22.364729
2026-02-08 0.403911 0.925806 1.930807 3.906050 7.544320 13.749538 24.812529
2026-02-15 0.348342 0.847007 1.853579 3.913589 7.845067 14.758307 27.424870
2026-02-22 0.296796 0.765432 1.756512 3.866904 8.035960 15.586357 29.787787
2026-03-01 0.241469 0.662869 1.598844 3.676089 7.928766 15.867361 31.203915
2026-03-08 0.206854 0.602383 1.522249 3.643809 8.132532 16.747334 33.800767
2026-03-15 0.178786 0.551742 1.458897 3.630407 8.372176 17.716298 36.645727
2026-03-22 0.168484 0.545519 1.497022 3.844825 9.104336 19.691628 41.540347
2026-03-29 0.152818 0.520812 1.486504 3.946641 9.607247 21.257135 45.764622
2026-04-05 0.142019 0.507611 1.502231 4.111328 10.262813 23.179689 50.827416
2026-04-12 0.125211 0.472039 1.454212 4.115297 10.559442 24.390719 54.558768
2026-04-19 0.105028 0.420206 1.353247 3.972566 10.503385 24.858017 56.811331
2026-04-26 0.087788 0.373021 1.255894 3.823602 10.413250 25.239978 58.908554
2026-05-03 0.077430 0.346923 1.214195 3.815089 10.658009 26.366396 62.649060
2026-05-10 0.068827 0.324778 1.180186 3.822469 10.941951 27.600669 66.705333
2026-05-17 0.059994 0.298993 1.129948 3.776765 11.086214 28.528953 70.157606